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2 Years After: Are Nigerians Happy with Tinubu’s Government?
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Tinubu’s Two-Year Milestone: A Transformative Journey Toward Nigeria’s Prosperity
As Nigeria marks the second anniversary of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration on May 29, 2025, the nation stands at a critical juncture. The Tinubu administration has embarked on an ambitious journey to reshape Nigeria’s economic, social, and security landscape through bold economic reforms and the Renewed Hope Agenda. While these policies have sparked hope for Nigeria’s prosperity, they have also brought challenges, impacting lives in profound ways. Let us examine the administration’s key policies, their positive and negative impacts, and how they position Nigeria for long-term growth.
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The Foundation of the Tinubu Administration
Upon assuming office in May 2023, President Tinubu inherited an economy plagued by fiscal imbalances, insecurity, and structural inefficiencies. His Renewed Hope Agenda promised to tackle these challenges head-on by fostering economic stability, improving security, reducing corruption, and lifting millions out of poverty. Two years later, the administration’s policies—such as fuel subsidy removal, exchange rate unification, and investments in infrastructure, health, and education—have begun to yield results, though not without growing pains.
Key Policies Driving Nigeria’s Transformation
1. Fuel Subsidy Removal: A Bold but Controversial Move
One of the Tinubu administration’s most defining policies was the immediate removal of the decades-long fuel subsidy. Described as a “chokehold” on Nigeria’s economy, the subsidy cost the government nearly $10 billion annually, fueling corruption and inefficiencies. By redirecting these funds, the administration aimed to stabilize fiscal accounts and invest in critical sectors like infrastructure and social services.
Positive Impacts:
- Increased Revenue for Development: The fuel subsidy removal has freed up significant resources, enabling record revenue-sharing at the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC), with N1.727 trillion distributed in 2024. This has empowered states to fund local projects, enhancing regional development.
- NNPC’s Turnaround: The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) is now a net contributor to the Federation Account, unburdened by subsidy costs, and is investing in local refining to reduce fuel import dependency.
- Investor Confidence: Global institutions like the IMF and World Bank have praised the policy, leading to renewed foreign investment, including $1.5 billion raised in an oversubscribed Eurobond issuance in Q1 2025.
Negative Impacts:
- Rising Cost of Living: The fuel subsidy removal triggered a sharp increase in fuel prices by over 152%, driving up transportation and food costs. Food inflation soared to over 40%, straining household budgets and reducing purchasing power for millions.
- Economic Hardship: The policy contributed to headline inflation reaching 33.6% in 2024, making essential goods unaffordable for many Nigerians.
2. Exchange Rate Unification: Stabilizing the Naira
The unification of multiple foreign exchange windows was another cornerstone of the Tinubu administration’s economic reforms. By floating the naira, the government aimed to eliminate arbitrage opportunities and attract foreign investment.
Positive Impacts:
- Transparency in Forex Markets: The policy has reduced corruption in the foreign exchange system, clearing a $7 billion backlog in unmet FX forwards and boosting the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) credibility.
- Economic Growth: Real GDP growth reached 4.6% in Q4 2024, driven by sectors like telecoms and fintech, signaling a recovering economy.
- Naira-for-Crude Initiative: The introduction of crude oil sales in naira has reduced dollar demand pressures, stabilizing the currency and supporting domestic liquidity.
Negative Impacts:
- Naira Devaluation: The naira’s value dropped nearly 200% against the dollar, exacerbating inflation and increasing the cost of imported goods.
- Business Challenges: Manufacturing and other import-dependent sectors have struggled with high input costs and forex constraints, hampering productivity.
3. Infrastructure Development: Building for the Future
The Tinubu administration has prioritized infrastructure as the backbone of Nigeria’s prosperity. Flagship projects like the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway and the Sokoto-Badagry Super Highway aim to enhance trade, connectivity, and economic integration.
Positive Impacts:
- Regional Connectivity: These projects promise to boost local economies, improve accessibility, and bridge urban-rural divides, fostering inclusive growth.
- Revenue Surge: Increased federal and state revenues have supported massive investments in transportation, energy, and housing, laying the groundwork for sustainable development.
- Regional Development Commissions: The establishment of commissions for the South West, North East, and other regions ensures decentralized infrastructure delivery, promoting equity.
Negative Impacts:
- Project Delays: Some infrastructure projects face delays due to funding challenges and bureaucratic hurdles, frustrating communities awaiting benefits.
- Displacement Concerns: Large-scale projects have raised concerns about land acquisition and displacement, requiring careful management to avoid social unrest.
4. Health and Education: Investing in Human Capital
Under the Renewed Hope Agenda, the administration has revitalized over 1,000 Primary Health Centres (PHCs) and plans to upgrade 5,500 more. Six new cancer treatment centers are being established, with three already operational, and free dialysis services are offered in select hospitals. In education, the Student Loan Fund and infrastructure investments aim to expand access to quality education.
Positive Impacts:
- Improved Healthcare Access: The revitalization of PHCs and cancer treatment centers enhances healthcare delivery, particularly in underserved areas.
- Education Opportunities: The Student Loan Fund supports indigent students, reducing financial barriers to tertiary education and fostering human capital development.
- Youth Empowerment: Investments in digital skills and the ICT sector, which contributed 16% to GDP in 2024, are creating jobs for Nigeria’s youthful population.
Negative Impacts:
- Implementation Gaps: The rollout of health and education initiatives has been uneven, with rural areas still facing access challenges.
- Funding Constraints: Sustaining these programs requires consistent funding, which remains a concern amid competing fiscal priorities.
5. Security Reforms: Restoring Safety
The Tinubu administration has made strides in addressing insecurity, particularly in the northwest, where banditry has declined, allowing farmers to return to their lands. Highways are safer, and security agencies have successfully rescued abducted citizens.
Positive Impacts:
- Safer Communities: Reduced banditry has restored livelihoods, boosting agricultural productivity and food security.
- Security Collaboration: Enhanced coordination among security agencies has improved response times and effectiveness.
Negative Impacts:
- Persistent Threats: Insecurity remains a challenge in some regions, with kidnappings and separatist violence in the southeast and Middle Belt.
- Public Trust: Slow progress in some areas has led to skepticism about the government’s ability to fully address security concerns.
Positioning Nigeria for Prosperity
The Tinubu administration’s policies are designed to lay a foundation for long-term prosperity in Nigeria. The Renewed Hope Agenda emphasizes economic diversification, with the solid minerals sector witnessing a six-fold revenue increase and $800 million in foreign investment. The administration’s tax reforms, aiming to reduce taxes and levies by 83.33%, and the National Single Window project to streamline trade are poised to create a business-friendly environment.
The 2025 budget, themed “Budget of Restoration: Securing Peace, Rebuilding Prosperity,” reflects a commitment to sustaining these gains. With fiscal deficits narrowing from 5.4% of GDP in 2023 to 3.0% in 2024, and zero VAT on essential commodities like food and healthcare, the administration is addressing cost-of-living challenges while fostering inclusive growth.
Challenges and the Path Forward
Despite these achievements, the Tinubu administration faces criticism for the immediate hardships caused by its reforms. Inflation, currency volatility, and weakened purchasing power have tested Nigerians’ resilience. Experts like Bismarck Rewane warn that global uncertainties could exacerbate these challenges, necessitating supply-side reforms to stabilize the naira and boost exports.
To ensure Nigeria’s prosperity, the administration must:
- Enhance Public Communication: Educate citizens on the long-term benefits of reforms to foster patience and support.
- Mitigate Hardship: Expand social safety nets, such as consumer credit and cash transfers, to cushion the impact on vulnerable populations.
- Accelerate Implementation: Address delays in infrastructure and social programs to deliver tangible benefits swiftly.
- Strengthen Security: Sustain and expand security gains to ensure all Nigerians live without fear.
Conclusion
The second anniversary of the Tinubu administration marks a pivotal moment in Nigeria’s journey toward prosperity. The economic reforms, including fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate unification, have set the stage for fiscal stability and investment growth, while the Renewed Hope Agenda drives progress in health, education, and infrastructure. However, the accompanying challenges of inflation and hardship underscore the need for careful policy calibration and robust support systems.
As President Tinubu stated, “The worst is behind us.” With continued commitment to transparency, inclusivity, and strategic implementation, the Tinubu administration can transform Nigeria into a beacon of hope and opportunity, fulfilling the promise of a prosperous future for all.
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